Crowd Control

In his book, The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki argues that far from being mindless, crowds often possess unusual insight. Hmmm. Tell that to Moses!

The year was 1906. The event was the annual “West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition.” A British scientist became interested in a weight-judging competition.

The challenge: Guess the weight of a slaughtered ox.

As you might imagine, it was very difficult — if not impossible — for a single individual to guess the weight of the beast. That’s the point of the competition.

It occurred to the scientist that the crowd as a whole might do better. So he studied the estimates of 800 people at the exhibition — people who were smart, dumb, old, young, and representative of all types of professions. Their collective estimate was 1,198 pounds.

The actual weight of the ox: 1,197 pounds.

James Surowiecki tells this story in his book, The Wisdom of Crowds. It’s a book which explores why large groups are often smarter than isolated individuals, and how collective wisdom shapes economies and nations. The author suggests that there is an uncanny,...